All three major US indices closed the final trading day of the week higher on Friday after President Trump indicated that some tariffs may be lighter than previously expected. The Dow and S&P both edged up 0.08% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded a 0.52% gain. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies, with the DXY adding 0.3% to move up to 104.09. Treasury yields had a mixed session, with the 2-year yield losing 1.6 basis points to drop to 3.948%, while the 10-year yield added 0.9 basis points to 4.246%. Oil prices rose again as supply concerns continued to weigh on markets, with Brent up 0.22% to $72.16 and WTI up 0.31% to $68.28. Gold saw some profit-taking in line with the stronger dollar, dropping 0.74% on the day to close at $3,023.46 an ounce.

Pivotal Week Ahead for the Dollar

It could be a pivotal week ahead for the dollar as the FX market digests fresh data, including key inflation figures, and navigates further tariff updates and their potential impact on global trade. The DXY has dropped over 6% in the past couple of months as markets have reassessed the potential global trade war triggered by President Trump’s tariff plans. However, it appears to have found support just above the 103.00 level and has spent the last few days recovering some losses, now sitting just above 104.00 as we enter the new trading week. While no major central bank rate decisions are scheduled, important data releases—including CPI figures from the UK and Australia, as well as the US Core PCE—are due. Additional tariff updates could also influence sentiment, leaving the DXY with the potential to either climb back into recent ranges or challenge last week’s lows once again.

PMI Data in Focus for Markets Today

A raft of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data is due from across the globe today, and investors will be monitoring updates closely to assess how firms are coping with increasing global trade concerns. The Asian session kicks off with Australian data, followed by Flash Services and Manufacturing updates from France, Germany, the EU, the UK, and the US over the next two trading sessions. Later in the New York session, we will also hear from our first central bank speakers of the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

The post General Market Analysis – 24/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stock markets experienced a choppy trading day yesterday as investors digested the latest rate update from the Fed, with all three major indices ultimately drifting lower. The Dow closed the day just 0.03% lower, while the S&P and Nasdaq fell slightly more, closing down 0.22% and 0.33%, respectively. US Treasury yields also drifted, with the 2-year yield down 0.9 basis points to 3.963% and the benchmark 10-year losing 0.6 basis points to close at 4.237%.

FX markets were livelier as more central bank decisions hit the markets, with the dollar pushing higher on the day—the DXY up 0.35% to 103.79. Oil prices also surged as military action intensified in both Ukraine and the Middle East, with Brent up 2.07% to $72.26 a barrel and WTI up 1.73% to $68.07. Meanwhile, gold experienced a quiet day but remained near recent record levels, dropping just 0.05% to close at $3,044.40.

Central Banks Largely in Line with Expectations

Investors had been looking to this week for some clarity on the markets, with key central bank updates due. However, many were left disappointed, as most announcements went largely in line with expectations. The Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all kept rates on hold as expected, acknowledged inflation concerns, and recognised the threat of tariffs to global trade and the uncertainty they create.

The SNB cut rates and acknowledged its own low inflation issues, but overall, traders received little in the way of certainty regarding the banks’ future direction. As a result, economic data will take centre stage over the next few months, as markets assess whether tariffs and other geopolitical factors impact figures as strongly as anticipated. In the short term, it appears to be ‘more of the same’, with volatility likely to remain high.

Quieter Calendar Day to End a Busy Trading Week

The macroeconomic calendar is more subdued today, closing out what has been a busy trading week from both a fundamental and geopolitical perspective. The Asian session will initially focus on Japanese markets, which return after a holiday yesterday, with the National Core CPI data (expected at 2.9%) due early in the day.

There is little on the European session calendar to move markets, although Euro traders will keep an eye on the EU Current Account number mid-morning. The New York open will see an early focus on Canadian Retail Sales numbers, with expectations of a 0.1% decrease in the headline data and a 0.4% decrease in the Core data. Beyond that, traders anticipate smoother trading conditions heading into the weekend—barring any major headlines hitting the newswires!

The post General Market Analysis – 21/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stock indices rallied strongly in overnight trading after the Fed kept rates on hold and predicted 50 basis points of cuts before the end of the year. All three major indices pushed higher following the announcement, with the Dow rising 0.92%, the S&P 1.08%, and the Nasdaq jumping 1.41%. US Treasury yields fell as traders priced in the fresh dot plot, with the 2-year yield down 6.8 basis points to 3.972% and the 10-year falling 4 basis points to 4.243%. However, the dollar edged slightly higher against most major currencies, with the exception of the yen. Oil prices rose after the Fed’s announcement, with Brent up 0.5% to $70.91 per barrel and WTI increasing 0.39% to $67.16 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold continued its upward momentum, gaining another 0.49% on the day to reach a new record high, closing at $3,046.64.

Dollar Consolidating at Annual Lows

The dollar has spent the past few trading days consolidating around annual lows, and FX traders are now evaluating its next move. Many were looking to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for a catalyst, but the central bank delivered what was largely expected overnight, with a measured update following its widely anticipated rate hold. The dollar index has found support on multiple occasions in recent days around the 103.20 level, and a break lower could see it challenge support just below 102.00. Much will depend on the euro— which comprises 57% of the basket— and whether it breaks through long-term resistance near 1.1000 or retreats into recent ranges. Whatever unfolds next, most FX traders do not expect the DXY or the euro to remain at current levels for long.

Huge Trading Day Ahead for Markets

It is a significant day for traders, with key data releases and central bank updates spanning all three major trading sessions. The day has already seen New Zealand GDP figures surpass expectations in the Asian session, and focus will soon shift across the Tasman for Australian employment data later this morning, followed swiftly by Chinese Loan Prime Rate updates from the PBOC.

The European session brings a double dose of UK data, with employment figures released early in the session, followed later by the Bank of England’s latest rate decision and associated updates. In between, attention will turn to Switzerland for the Swiss National Bank’s rate decision, where another 25-basis point cut is expected.

The New York session will feature the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index before the day concludes with a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

The post General Market Analysis – 20/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stock indices rallied for the second consecutive session yesterday as investors sought value ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow finished up 0.85%, the S&P added 0.64%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31%. The dollar took another step down after weaker retail sales figures, with the DXY dropping 0.32%. Treasury yields had a mixed day following the data, with the shorter-dated 2-year gaining 2.7 basis points to move up to 4.044%, while the benchmark 10-year fell 1.4 basis points to 4.298%. Oil prices were mixed as well, with Brent finishing up 0.69% at $71.07, whilst WTI lost 0.37% to move down to $67.33 a barrel. Gold remained bid near recent record levels, gaining 0.58% to close the NY session at $3,001.47.

Gold Remains in Focus for Uncertain Markets

Gold remains in demand while trading at record levels at the moment, as uncertainty continues to dominate markets. Investors are hoping for greater clarity this week from central banks and data updates. If this materialises, we could see some profit-taking and a pullback in gold prices. However, geopolitical developments will compete with fundamentals for headlines, and if they continue to instil doubt in investors’ minds, recent moves could extend even further, potentially breaking decisively above the $3,000 level. There is also a risk that central banks will strongly acknowledge this uncertainty, which could provide further upside potential. For most traders, the trend remains their friend, but they are prepared to act swiftly if conditions change in the next few days—particularly when we hear from the Fed late on Wednesday.

Markets Brace for More Volatility in the Days Ahead

Traders are preparing for increased volatility in the coming days as the macroeconomic calendar begins to intensify, bringing key data updates and major central bank rate decisions. Today’s calendar is relatively quiet, but the next few sessions are expected to be very busy. The Asian session today has little scheduled to move the markets, but some significant data releases are due in the next couple of trading sessions. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data is set for release during the London session today, with expectations for a 48.1 print—significantly higher than last month’s 26.0 result—reflecting recent updates on government spending plans. Once New York opens, the focus will shift to Canadian markets, with key CPI figures due shortly after the open. Expectations are for a 0.6% increase in the headline month-on-month data and a 2.7% print for the median year-on-year update.

The post General Market Analysis – 18/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stocks rallied strongly on Friday as investors shrugged off tariff concerns and looked to buy dips, with tech stocks performing particularly well. The Dow gained 1.65%, while the S&P and Nasdaq notched up their best daily performance since 6th November, gaining 2.13% and 2.61%, respectively. The dollar drifted lower, with the DXY losing 0.11% to move down to 103.72, while Treasury yields pushed higher, the 2-year up 6 basis points to 4.017% and the benchmark 10-year adding 4.4 basis points to move back up to 4.312%.

Oil prices jumped again to close out a volatile week near flat, with Brent adding 1% on the day to close at $70.58 and WTI up 0.95% to $67.80 a barrel. Gold hit another record high before ultimately dropping slightly lower on the day, down 0.32% to $2,978.09.

Central Banks in Action This Week

Traders expect a shift in focus this week, with key interest rate announcements from major central banks due over the next few days. Last week’s price action was undoubtedly influenced by geopolitical developments, as tariff tit-for-tat exchanges led to highly volatile conditions. However, this week should see investor attention return to fundamentals, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank all set to make rate announcements.

Despite only the SNB likely to make a move this week, traders anticipate significant volatility around these events as their respective committees update the market on future policy moves, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and data releases.

Data in Focus to Start the Trading Week

Asian markets are set to open the week on the front foot after a strong day on Wall Street on Friday, but attention will soon turn to key economic data as the day progresses. The initial focus in the Asian session will be on Chinese markets, with the usual monthly data release expected midway through the session. Investors will closely watch the Industrial Production figures (expected at 5.3%) and Retail Sales numbers (3.8%), while the subsequent press conference could also trigger market movements.

There is little on the calendar in the European session, but the first major US data releases of the week are due shortly after the New York open, including Retail Sales (expected +0.6%), Core Retail Sales (+0.3%), and the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-1.9), all released simultaneously.

The post General Market Analysis – 17/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stocks were hit hard again last night as the escalating global trade war overshadowed cooler US inflation data. The Dow Jones closed down 1.3%, the S&P dropped 1.39%, confirming that it is in a technical correction, and the Nasdaq fell 1.96%. US Treasury yields declined after PPI numbers came in worse than expected, with the 2-year down 3 basis points to 3.956% and the 10-year off 4.4 basis points to 4.268%. Haven flows helped the dollar regain some of its recent losses, with the DXY up 0.23% to 103.84. Oil prices fell sharply again as global growth concerns continued to weigh, with Brent down 1.11% to $70.16 and WTI dropping 1.67% to $66.55 a barrel. Gold surged higher, smashing through resistance to reach new record levels, closing up 1.85% by the New York close at $2,989.82.

Gold Shines as Market Worries Grow

Gold prices surged last night as continued global trade uncertainty and the potential for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve helped push the world’s favourite precious metal to new record levels. Spot gold closed the session up 1.85% yesterday and is now up nearly 15% in 2025, having risen 27% in 2024. Traders now believe it is only a matter of hours, rather than days, before another significant milestone is reached and gold touches $3,000 an ounce. If uncertainty over tariffs continues to dominate the market, investors are likely to keep seeking haven assets, potentially driving gold even higher. However, a sharp change in circumstances—particularly any certainty in the markets or a reduction in tariffs—could trigger a downturn, and given the speed of the recent rise, any corrections could be equally sharp and severe.

Another Busy Trading Day to End the Week

At the start of the trading week, many traders may have expected smoother market conditions, given the relatively quiet macroeconomic event calendar. However, this has not been the case, as frequent geopolitical updates have led to increased volatility across financial markets. Once again, there is nothing of note on the calendar during the Asian session, but early in the European day, attention will be on the UK economy with the release of the latest GDP data. Later in the day, US data will be released, including the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations figures. However, geopolitical developments and global trade updates are expected to dominate market sentiment through to the New York close today.

The post General Market Analysis – 14/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stocks rose in trading yesterday after a lower inflation print increased hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The headline CPI figure came in 0.1% lower than expected, confirming a cooling US economy, and investors pushed back into tech stocks. The Dow closed down 0.2%, but the tech-heavy S&P and Nasdaq recorded strong gains on the day, rising 0.49% and 1.22% respectively.

Treasury yields and the dollar both finished higher despite the data release, with the 2-year yield up 4.3 basis points to 3.986% and the 10-year yield up 3.2 basis points to 4.312%. The DXY rose 0.15% to 103.58.

Oil prices also surged following lower-than-expected US oil inventories, with Brent crude up 2.04% to $70.98 per barrel and WTI rising 2.16% to $67.68 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold continued its climb towards record levels, increasing 0.65% to $2,937.56.

Dollar Remains Under Pressure

The US dollar index snapped a seven-day losing streak yesterday but remains under pressure, as ongoing market uncertainty over tariffs and global trade tensions weighs on investor sentiment. The index has now retraced the gains made after the November election of President Trump and the Republican Party, which had initially sparked inflation concerns, falling more than 6% from its January highs.

Some traders believe the market may now undergo a reset following this sharp decline, particularly if geopolitical uncertainty eases. While US economic data has weakened over the past few months, many feel this has already been priced into the dollar. With several major currency pairs approaching key technical levels on longer-term charts, the greenback’s fortunes could shift in the coming sessions.

More US Inflation Data in Focus

This week has been relatively quiet in terms of macroeconomic data releases and central bank updates, and today is no exception. There is little of note on the calendar during the Asian and European trading sessions, but key US inflation data is due shortly after the New York open.

Producer Price Index (PPI) data is scheduled for release, and while its impact is typically lower than last night’s CPI figure, significant market moves could follow if the data deviates from the expected 0.3% month-on-month increase for both the headline and core figures. At the same time, weekly unemployment claims data will be released, with expectations for a 226,000 print—an increase of just 5,000 from last week’s figure.

The post General Market Analysis – 13/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Geopolitical updates continued to dominate market movements yesterday, as further tariff updates and a ceasefire in Ukraine led to increased volatility. US stock markets once again closed in the red, though the decline was less severe than the previous day’s rout. The Dow dropped 1.14%, the S&P fell 0.76%, and the Nasdaq declined just 0.18% as some positive news filtered through the uncertainty. Treasury yields rebounded from recent lows, with the 2-year yield rising by 6 basis points to 3.943% and the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.280%. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened further, with the DXY down 0.4% to 103.43. Oil prices gained some ground but remained under pressure, with Brent rising 0.89% to $69.90 and WTI increasing 0.33% to $66.25. Gold pushed higher on the back of the weaker greenback, up 1.25% to $2,916.58 per ounce.

Bank of Canada Rate Call in Focus

The Canadian dollar has been in sharp focus for currency traders over the past few months and, more recently, in the past few hours, as tariff and counter-tariff updates have triggered sharp movements in one of the least liquid major pairs. However, interest rate differentials will briefly take centre stage today as the Bank of Canada announces its latest rate decision. The Bank is widely expected (80% priced in) to reduce interest rates again by 25 basis points, lowering the base rate from 3.00% to 2.75%. However, traders anticipate greater currency movement following updates on the Bank’s outlook in its statement and subsequent press conference later in the day. A key focus will be the potential impact of US tariffs and whether these could push the Bank towards a more dovish stance. Should this occur, the beleaguered Loonie may face further downside pressure.

Event Calendar Kicks into Action Today

From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, today is expected to be the busiest day of the week for traders. However, as observed over the past six sessions, geopolitical updates continue to dominate market sentiment. Nevertheless, two key events later today could have a significant impact on their respective markets. There are no major releases scheduled during the Asian session, though ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to speak during the European trading day. The main focus, however, will be on the US open and the crucial CPI data. Expectations are for a 0.3% month-on-month increase, and any substantial deviation from this figure could trigger significant market movements. The US inflation data will be swiftly followed by the Bank of Canada’s latest rate decision, policy statement, and press conference, all of which are expected to add further volatility to the Loonie.

The post General Market Analysis – 12/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stocks tumbled in trading yesterday as recession fears grew for the world’s largest economy, driven by heightened geopolitical risks. The Dow fell by 2.08%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.70%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged by a hefty 4%. Bonds rallied, with yields taking a significant hit on the day—the 2-year yield falling 11.3 basis points to 3.883%, while the benchmark 10-year yield declined by 8.8 basis points to 4.213%. The dollar edged slightly higher but saw some weakness, with the DXY rising just 0.06% to 103.90. A similar trend was seen in oil prices, which surrendered most of their recent gains amid growing concerns over economic growth—Brent crude fell 1.62% to $69.22, while WTI dropped 1.51% to $66.03. Gold prices also pulled back, declining 0.75% to close near support levels at $2,887.56.

Investors Fear the “R” Word Could Spread More Panic

Just a week ago, even mentioning the “R” word may have been met with scepticism among investors in the US, but now market commentators are openly discussing ‘recession fears’ as stock indices continue to plunge. The ‘buy the dip’ mentality that proved so effective for investors last year may be severely tested in the coming months, particularly as uncertainty over government policy persists. Inflationary concerns that initially accompanied the new government have taken a backseat, with the primary focus now on global economic growth and its impact on financial markets. There are growing fears that the ongoing correction in US markets could be deep and prolonged.

Volatile Markets Ahead Despite a Quiet Calendar

Traders are bracing for another turbulent session today as Wall Street’s rough start to the week looks set to extend into the Asian trading session. While today’s economic calendar is relatively light until the US session, market sentiment remains fragile. Typically, this would suggest a quieter, more range-bound trading day, but increasing concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on global growth could spark further volatility. With little scheduled to interrupt the current momentum, both Asian and European markets could experience heightened fluctuations.

The US will release the JOLTS Job Openings data later today, which usually coincides with other major employment figures. While this may prompt some reflection among traders, geopolitical concerns are expected to dominate market sentiment—at least until tomorrow’s key CPI release.

The post General Market Analysis – 11/03/25 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.