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Trade Cable on the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

IC Markets Global — Thu, 20 Mar 2025 01:10:08 +0000

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision later today and is widely expected to keep the Official Bank Rate on hold at 4.50% after cutting rates in February. However, traders anticipate significant market movement around the event, particularly with the release of the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. A key focus will be on inflation, especially after January’s data showed a higher-than-expected rise to 3%. Additionally, the MPC—along with the broader market—has been closely monitoring Donald Trump’s tariff plans, and traders will be keen to see how much attention is given to their potential impact.

Cable has seen a strong run this year, climbing nearly nine big figures from a mid-January low below 1.2100 to recently topping out just above 1.3000. It is likely to be trading near these highs ahead of today’s announcement. The biggest impact on the currency will, of course, come if there is a change in interest rates. However, since most of the market firmly expects no change, volatility is more likely to arise from the policy statement and press conference.

If the MPC leans towards inflation concerns—interpreted as a less dovish stance—Cable could break recent highs and challenge 2024’s peak just above 1.3400. Conversely, if the focus shifts more toward global growth risks and a dovish outlook, the pair could retreat into its range, with initial support around 1.2796 and the 200-day moving average.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance 2: 1.3252 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 1.3015 – 2025 High
Support 1: 1.2796 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 1.2247 – Long-Term Trendline Support

The post Trade Cable on the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade USDJPY on the Non-Farm Payrolls

IC Markets Global — Wed, 05 Mar 2025 06:03:26 +0000

It has already been a volatile week for currencies, and traders expect the lively market conditions to persist through the New York close on Friday. Geopolitical factors have played a major role in market movements this week, but traders anticipate a shift in focus toward macroeconomic fundamentals, with a series of key data releases scheduled for the remainder of the week, culminating in the U.S. employment data early in the New York session on Friday.

There has been significant volatility across major currency pairs this week, but as usual, the standout has been USD/JPY, and this trend is expected to continue in Friday’s trading sessions. USD/JPY has dropped nearly 7% since its high in early January, and despite a rally off last night’s lows, it remains vulnerable to further downside movement. Interest rate differentials have played a significant role since the start of the year, as the Bank of Japan remains hawkish while expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted forward from September to June—or even May. If the jobs data also indicate a slowing U.S. economy, expectations could move even closer, further widening the interest rate differential and pushing USD/JPY lower.

The consensus forecast for the headline NFP figure is for 160,000 jobs to have been added in the past month, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.0%. A significantly weaker-than-expected report could see the recent low just above 148.00 tested, while a stronger result would likely push the pair higher, with initial resistance around 152.30—where both the daily resistance trendline and the 200-day moving average currently align.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance 2: 158.03 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance

Resistance 1: 152.30 – Trendline Resistance and 200 Day Moving Average

Support 1: 148.07 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

Support 2: 144.40 – Long-Term Trendline Support

The post Trade USDJPY on the Non-Farm Payrolls first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade the AUD/USD on the Australian GDP Data

IC Markets Global — Tue, 04 Mar 2025 22:51:08 +0000

The Aussie has seen a strong rally over the last couple of trading sessions as geopolitical factors have dominated flows across FX and led to a sharp sell-off in the greenback. However, traders’ focus will turn back to fundamentals today, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics set to release the latest GDP data. Market expectations are for the data to show a 0.6% increase in the quarter-on-quarter figure, which would represent a significant improvement from last quarter’s 0.3% increase and lend some credence to the Reserve Bank’s hawkish rhetoric following last month’s rate cut.

Any significant deviation from the expected 0.6% print should lead to notable moves in the Aussie, both against the dollar and on the crosses, where it has experienced strong depreciation in recent days. Against the dollar, it has rallied well off levels just under 62 cents but is likely to face resistance near the 63-cent level, where both hourly trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average converge. A weaker print could ease some pressure on the RBA to maintain high rates, potentially causing the Aussie to retreat back into its range, with trendline support at 0.6190 as the initial target.

Resistance Levels:

Resistance 2: 0.6308 – Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 0.6292 – 200-Day Moving Average

Support Levels:

Support 1: 0.6185 – Trendline Support and March Low
Support 2: 0.6095 – Long-term Trendline Support

The post Trade the AUD/USD on the Australian GDP Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade the Aussie Dollar on the Australian Employment Data

IC Markets Global — Wed, 19 Feb 2025 22:07:11 +0000

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release the latest employment data midway through the Asian trading session today, and foreign exchange traders are expecting to see some strong moves in the currency as it sits close to key technical levels. The market anticipates an increase of around 20,000 jobs over the last month, with the unemployment rate creeping slightly higher to 4.1% from 4.0%. Any significant deviation from these figures could result in a sharp movement in the Aussie Dollar.

The currency is sitting close to annual highs despite a rate cut from the Reserve Bank on Tuesday. A stronger employment change or a drop in the expected unemployment rate could see it break through resistance levels and reach new annual highs. Conversely, a weaker print or an increase in the unemployment rate would likely see it fall back into recent trading ranges.

Resistance Levels:

Resistance 2: 0.6550 – Daily 200-Day Moving Average
Resistance 1: 0.6374 – 2025 High and Trendline Resistance

Support Levels:

Support 1: 0.6314 – Hourly 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.6085 – 2025 Low and Trendline Support

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on the Australian Employment Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade the Kiwi on the RBNZ Rate Decision

IC Markets Global — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:25:09 +0000

Kiwi dollar traders anticipate a significant increase in volatility today as the currency comes into sharp focus ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest interest rate decision. The market is fully pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, which has been well signposted by Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Any deviation from this expectation is likely to trigger substantial movement in the ‘flightless bird’.

As always, if the decision aligns with market forecasts, price action will be driven by the forward guidance provided in the accompanying statements and press conference. FX traders are bracing for strong moves, with NZD/USD currently hovering near key technical levels.

The Kiwi has been on the back foot for most of the year as the USD strengthened, but it has shown some recovery since hitting multi-year lows at the start of this month. It now sits near short-term resistance levels on the hourly chart, while also remaining relatively close to long-term support. A surprise in either the rate decision or policy guidance could trigger a significant breakout in either direction.

The market expects the RBNZ to maintain a dovish stance, with further rate cuts anticipated later in the year, albeit at a smaller scale. A less dovish tone could see recent highs quickly surpassed, whereas a more dovish stance could lead to a swift retest of early February’s lows.

Resistance 2: 0.5750 – 2025 High

Resistance 1: 0.5738 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.5676 – 200 Day Moving Average

Support 2: 0.5515 – 2025 Low and Trendline Support

The post Trade the Kiwi on the RBNZ Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade the Aussie Dollar on the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

IC Markets Global — Mon, 17 Feb 2025 22:39:15 +0000

Aussie dollar traders are eagerly anticipating the first rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia since the COVID pandemic today and expect plenty of volatility in the currency around the event. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut today, which would bring the cash rate down from 4.35% to 4.10%. Any update other than this will likely lead to huge moves in the Aussie. Ironically, the currency has been gaining ground against the US dollar and on the crosses over the last few weeks, despite the increased chances of a rate cut being priced in. However, this has been more due to global updates rather than domestic factors.

The Aussie is sitting very close to annual highs this morning ahead of the rate decision. Barring any surprise away from the expected 25-point cut, traders are expecting the guidance from the statement and the later press conference to move the currency. More dovish comments should see it return to recent ranges, with short-term support on the hourly chart now sitting on the 200-day moving average just under 63 cents. Conversely, anything less dovish—or even with an underlying hawkish tone, which had been the outlook up until the end of last year—could see the pair break through those recent highs and push into fresh topside territory.

Resistance 2: 0.6687 – November 2024 High
Resistance 1: 0.6374 – 2025 High and Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.6296 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.6085 – 2025 Low and Trendline Support

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade USDCHF on the Swiss CPI Data

IC Markets Global — Thu, 13 Feb 2025 04:02:35 +0000

Inflation data has dominated market sentiment overnight after a hotter-than-expected print in the US. However, more data is due tonight, and the Swiss CPI release could present a strong trading opportunity, with the currency trading near key technical levels. The Swiss National Bank has been leading the charge in terms of rate cuts in Europe, with its rate sitting at just 0.5%. The central bank will be closely monitoring today’s data print for any indications of further moves. Expectations are for the data to show a 0.1% decrease in month-on-month CPI, and any deviation from this figure could trigger sharp movements in the franc.

USDCHF is currently sitting just below key trendline resistance on the daily chart and the annual high. A weaker print should see it break higher into fresh ranges for the year, while a stronger number is likely to push it back into recent ranges. Trend traders will favour a topside move, especially following last night’s stronger US data, and a weaker number in Switzerland could create the ideal conditions for a significant move north.

Resistance 2: 0.9225 – 2024 High

Resistance 1: 0.9200 – 2025 High and Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 0.8830 – 200-Day Moving Average

Support 2: 0.8374 – 2024 Low and Trendline Support

The post Trade USDCHF on the Swiss CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade Cable on the US CPI Data

IC Markets Global — Wed, 12 Feb 2025 03:15:27 +0000

Foreign exchange traders are preparing for a busy final session today, with the key US CPI data due to come out early in a New York session that is likely to be preceded by relatively quiet days in both Asia and Europe. Expectations are for a 0.3% month-on-month increase for the CPI and Core CPI numbers and a 2.9% increase for the year-on-year data. Anything off those prints should see big moves in the market, and anything more than 0.2% will see large moves. Stronger data will put the Fed under pressure to pull interest rate expectations further down the track and will see the dollar take off, whilst weaker prints will see a continuation of recent dollar weakness and pull rate cut expectations in.

Cable is looking like one of the best pairs to trade on the data, and we could see significant moves if we do get those prints off expectations. It has rallied nicely up to levels just north of 1.2400, and a weaker result will see it challenge the topside resistance trendline on the hourly chart near 1.2500. A stronger number opens the way for a move swiftly back to recent levels, with support at 1.2320.

Resistance 2: 1.2549 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 1.2500 – Trendline Resistance

Support 1: 1.2320 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 1.2242 – February Low

The post Trade Cable on the US CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trade the Euro on the US Employment Data

IC Markets Global — Fri, 07 Feb 2025 00:50:32 +0000

Key US employment numbers are set to be released later today, and traders are bracing for significant market movements in response. While geopolitical issues have dominated market flows this week, the focus is shifting to fundamentals as traders seek guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut. With little else on the economic calendar in recent trading sessions, the impact of the data could be magnified, especially if the figures deviate significantly from expectations.

The market expects the headline Non-Farm Employment Change figure to show an increase of 169,000 jobs last month, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings rising by 0.3%. Any deviation of ±30,000 jobs from the forecast could trigger substantial market moves.

The Euro is currently trading near key technical levels, presenting strong trading opportunities following the data release. It has been trending toward the upper end of its recent range after the dollar weakened for most of the week, but that could change swiftly tonight. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could see recent highs and trendline resistance on the hourly chart tested quickly, while a stronger report would likely push the pair back into its range, targeting the annual lows seen on Monday.

Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance:

1.0532 – 2025 High
1.0466 – Trendline Resistance

Support:

1.0350 – Overnight Low
1.0142 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low

The post Trade the Euro on the US Employment Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.