What happened in the U.S. session?

With no major news announcements during the European and U.S. trading sessions, demand for the greenback waned causing the dollar index (DXY) to reverse off Monday’s high of 110.17 to fall under 110 while spot prices for gold fell in tandem to drop as low as $2,656.76/oz before stabilizing around that region. Crude oil prices – lifted by the newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Russian exports – remained elevated with WTI oil breaching above the $79 mark overnight.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

WTI oil slid towards $78.60 per barrel but this commodity should remain buoyed as the day progresses. Meanwhile, the DXY appears to have found a footing at around 109.60 after dropping as low as 109.34 late Monday. Traders should also take note that Japanese banks re-opened on Tuesday following a 3-day long weekend due to the observance of Coming-of-Age Day on Monday.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

PPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The producer price index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – remains elevated as headline PPI accelerated to 3.0% over the last couple of months while the core figure remains stubbornly sticky at 3.4% in November. Should December’s results point to another month of higher wholesale prices, demand for the dollar is likely to surge once more.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted by a majority to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.25 to 4.50% on 18 December. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range at 4.5 to 4.75%.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
• Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
• The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) now indicates just two rate cuts in 2025 totalling 50 bps, compared to the full percentage point of reductions projected in the previous quarter.
• GDP growth forecasts were revised upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2% in the September projection) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%), while remaining steady at 2% for 2026. Similarly, PCE inflation projections have been adjusted higher for 2024 (2.4% vs 2.3%), 2025 (2.5% vs 2.1%), and 2026 (2.1% vs 2%).
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• The next meeting runs from 28 to 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

PPI (1:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The producer price index (PPI) – which measures wholesale inflation – remains elevated as headline PPI accelerated to 3.0% over the last couple of months while the core figure remains stubbornly sticky at 3.4% in November. Should December’s results point to another month of higher wholesale prices, demand for the dollar is likely to surge once more and potentially weigh on gold prices later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie stabilized around 0.6140 on Monday before retracing higher. This currency pair briefly climbed above the threshold of 0.6200 as Asian markets came online but overhead pressures could build as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10 December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
• Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
• The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
• Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
• A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
• Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wages growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
• Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
• The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
• The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Along with its Pacific neighbour, the Kiwi found its footing around 0.5540 before rebounding strongly towards 0.5600 on Monday. This currency pair rose as high as 0.5617 before the start of the Asia session and it could continue to grind higher on Tuesday.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
• The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
• Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
• Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
• Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
• Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
• Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to ease monetary policy restraint further.
• The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

Japanese banks re-opened on Tuesday following a 3-day long weekend due to the observance of Coming-of-Age Day on Monday. With demand for the dollar waning on Monday, USD/JPY retreated away from 158 to slide as low as 156.90 before reversing to edge higher – this currency pair was floating around 157.50 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 19 December, by a 8-1 majority vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
  2. The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part. Exports and industrial production have been more or less flat while corporate profits have been on an improving trend and business sentiment has stayed at a favourable level.
• The employment and income situation has improved moderately while private consumption has been on a moderate increasing trend despite the impact of price rises and other factors.
• On the price front, the year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a passthrough to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned; inflation expectations have risen moderately.
• With regard to the CPI (all items less fresh food), while the effects of the pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• The next meeting is on 24 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro tumbled as low as 1.0177 on Monday before reversing to climb higher. This currency pair rose strongly past 1.0250 before fizzling out around 1.0280 and could face strong headwinds later during the U.S. trading hours.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 12 December to mark the third successive rate cut.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.15%, 3.40% and 3.00% respectively.
• The disinflation process is well on track and most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis.
• Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 when the expanded EU Emissions Trading System becomes operational. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.
• Staff now expect a slower economic recovery than in the September projections. Although growth picked up in the third quarter of this year, survey indicators suggest it has slowed in the current quarter – the economy is expected to grow by 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.
• The next meeting is on 30 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

The franc continues to remain weak keeping USD/CHF elevated as it hit an overnight high of 0.9200. This currency pair pulled back slightly at the beginning of the Asia session but is expected to grind higher as the day progresses.

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 50 basis points, going from 1.00% to 0.50% on 12 December, marking for the fourth consecutive reduction.
• Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment has again been lower than expected as it decreased from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November; both goods and services contributed to this decline.
• In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September: 1.1% for 2024, 0.3% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0.5% over the entire forecast horizon.
• GDP growth in Switzerland was only modest in the third quarter of 2024 with growth in the services sector was again somewhat stronger, while value added in manufacturing declined.
• There was a further slight increase in unemployment, and employment growth was subdued while the utilisation of overall production capacity was
• normal.
• The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of between 1.0% and 1.5% for 2025.
• The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely, and will adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
• The next meeting is on 20 March 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

The pound was one of the weakest currencies on Monday as Cable momentarily tumbled under the threshold of 1.2100. This currency pair found its footing around this zone before retracing higher towards 1.2250 as Asian markets came online.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6 to 3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75% on 19 December 2024 – three members preferred to reduce the Bank rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.50%.
• The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024. On 18 December 2024, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £655B.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation had increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September, slightly higher than previous expectations while services consumer price inflation had remained elevated, at 5.0%, while core goods price inflation had risen to 1.1%.
• Headline CPI inflation was slightly higher than previous expectations, owing in large part to stronger inflation in core goods and food, and is expected to continue to rise slightly in the near term.
• Most indicators of UK near-term activity have declined with Bank staff expecting GDP growth to be weaker at the end of the year than originally projected in the November Monetary Policy Report.
• Bank staff now expected zero GDP growth in 2024 Q4, weaker than the 0.3% that had been incorporated in the November Report, broadly consistent with the latest combined steer from business surveys and the available official data.
• The Committee now judges that the labour market is broadly in balance as annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth picked up quite sharply in the three months to October but there remains significant uncertainty around developments in the labour market.
• Monetary policy has been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Over recent quarters there has been progress in disinflation, particularly as previous external shocks have abated, although remaining domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowly.
• The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will assess the extent to which the evolving evidence is consistent with more constrained supply, which could sustain inflationary pressures, or with weaker demand, which could lead to the emergence of spare capacity in the economy and push down inflation; a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate.
• Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further and the Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
• The next meeting is on 6 February 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Rising oil prices triggered higher demand for the Loonie causing USD/CAD to retreat from Monday’s high of 1.4447 to tumble as low as 1.4343. This currency pair stabilized around 1.4360 to retrace higher at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asia session.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.25% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 11 December; this marked the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
• Canada’s economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Bank’s October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports.
• The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force while wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity.
• Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
• CPI inflation has been about 2% since the summer and is expected to average close to the 2% target over the next couple of years. Since October, the upward pressure on inflation from shelter and the downward pressure from goods prices have both moderated as expected.
• Looking ahead, the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the GST break ends. In addition, the possibility the incoming US administration will impose new tariffs on Canadian exports to the United States has increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook.
• With inflation around 2%, the economy in excess supply, and recent indicators tilted towards softer growth than projected, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 50 basis points to support growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1-3% target range.
• The Governing Council has reduced the policy rate substantially since June and going forward, they will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time.
• The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
• The next meeting is on 29 January 2025.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (9:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

The API stockpiles have declined over the past four weeks – a sign of higher demand for crude oil in the U.S. – with the most recent result highlighting a drawdown of 4.0M barrels. Should these inventories continue to experience higher than anticipated demand, oil prices will likely receive an additional tailwind later today. WTI oil broke above the $79 mark on Monday before pulling back to hover around $78.70 per barrel as Asian markets came online on Tuesday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 14 January 2025 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The post Earning Report first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US markets ended another strong week on Friday, with the Dow achieving a fresh record close, rising 0.33% on the day. In contrast, the S&P and Nasdaq posted declines, losing 0.13% and 0.39%, respectively, though both indices enjoyed positive performance over the week. US PCE Price Index data came in slightly below expectations, prompting a fall in both treasury yields and the dollar. The 2-year yield dropped by 6 basis points to 3.563%, while the 10-year shed 3.8 basis points to close at 3.751%. The dollar index fell 0.17% to 100.43. Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Friday amid increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with Brent crude climbing 0.53% to $71.89 and WTI jumping 0.75% to $68.18. Gold, on the other hand, retreated from recent record highs, falling 0.42% on the day but still closing out a historic week at $2,657.97.

US Employment Numbers in Focus This Week

This week promises to be pivotal for financial markets, with a major focus on the latest updates regarding the US jobs market. The Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday will likely be the key event, but there are three other crucial updates earlier in the week that could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plans and their broader impact on the markets. JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment, and the weekly Unemployment Claims all hold potential to move markets. It is now widely acknowledged that the Fed’s focus has shifted towards employment data, away from inflation figures. Continued weakening in the labour market could bolster the case for a 50 basis point rate cut in November, while stronger-than-expected figures might lead to heightened volatility, with a retreat in rate cut expectations and a potential rebound for the dollar.

Busy Start to the Trading Week

It looks set to be an active start to the trading week today, with a range of risk events on the calendar and escalating geopolitical tensions likely to generate market-moving headlines. In the Asian session, attention will initially focus on China, where the release of key Manufacturing PMI data is expected to print at 49.4. During the European session, traders will turn their attention to Germany’s CPI data, released incrementally across the session by individual states, which should keep euro traders alert. Though the New York session is light on economic data, with only the Chicago PMI figures scheduled, it could still see significant moves as major central bank figures, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are due to speak.

The post General Market Analysis – 30/09/24 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Xin vui lòng xem lịch giao dịch cập nhật và các thông tin chung liên quan đến Ngày Lao động của Hoa Kỳ vào thứ Hai, ngày 2 tháng 9 năm 2024.

Thanh khoản trong thời gian nghỉ lễ dự kiến sẽ đặc biệt thấp, vì vậy vui lòng thực hiện các biện pháp cần thiết để đảm bảo rằng bạn không bị ảnh hưởng bởi sự biến động tăng cao, chênh lệch giá và giá cả không ổn định.

Tất cả các thời gian được đề cập dưới đây đều là thời gian trên nền tảng (GMT +3).

Các cặp Forex & Crypto:

Kim loại quý:

Năng lượng giao ngay:

Chỉ số:

Hợp đồng tương lai năng lượng:

Hợp đồng tương lai hàng hóa mềm:

Hợp đồng tương lai chỉ số:

Hợp đồng tương lai trái phiếu:

Cổ phiếu:

Trân trọng,

IC Markets Global.

The post Lịch giao dịch Ngày Lao động của Hoa Kỳ năm 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum is that price is: In a bearish descending channel

Price could potentially make a: Bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support

Pivot: 104.88

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance with confluence from the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a level where selling pressure may intensify, potentially leading to a bearish reaction.

1st support: 104.09

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a support for downward movement.

1st resistance: 105.56

Supporting reasons: Noted as an overlap resistance with confluence from the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum is that price is: Within the bullish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a: Bullish bounce off pivot and heads toward 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.0812

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a pivot for bullish movement.

1st support: 1.0745

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support with confluence from the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where buying pressure may intensify, potentially providing additional support for upward movement.

1st resistance: 1.0890

Supporting reasons: Noted as an overlap resistance, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support

Pivot: 170.01

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pivot with confluence from the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may intensify, potentially leading to a bearish reaction.

1st support: 167.39

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a support for downward movement.

1st resistance: 171.63

Supporting reasons: Noted as a swing high resistance, indicating a significant historical level where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support

Pivot: 0.8565

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, suggesting a significant historical level where selling pressure may intensify, potentially leading to a bearish reaction.

1st support: 0.8530

Supporting reasons: Recognized as a multi-swing low support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a support for downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.8590

Supporting reasons: Noted as an overlap resistance, indicating another significant historical level where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum is that price is: In a bullish ascending channel

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and heads towards 1st resistance

Pivot: 1.2634

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a level where buying interest may emerge, potentially acting as a pivot for bullish movement.

1st support: 1.2561

Supporting reasons: Recognized as a pullback support, indicating another level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing additional support for upward movement.

1st resistance: 1.2763

Supporting reasons: Noted as a pullback resistance with confluence from the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and 100% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may intensify, potentially hindering further upward movement. The Fibonacci confluence enhances the significance of this resistance level.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and heads towards 1st resistance

Pivot: 197.47

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a pivot for bullish movement.

1st support: 195.49

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support, indicating another historical level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing additional support for upward movement.

1st resistance: 200.60

Supporting reasons: Noted as a swing high resistance with confluence from the 100% Fibonacci Projection, suggesting a significant historical level where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support

Pivot: 0.9152

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance with confluence from the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may intensify, potentially leading to a bearish reaction.

1st support: 0.8996

Supporting reasons: Recognized as a multi-swing low support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a support for downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.9223

Supporting reasons: Noted as a swing high resistance, indicating a significant historical level where selling pressure may be present, potentially hindering further upward movement.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support

Pivot: 156.58

Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance, indicating a significant historical level where selling pressure may intensify, potentially leading to a bearish reaction.

1st support: 153.63

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support, indicating a historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially acting as a support for downward movement.

1st resistance: 158.41

Supporting reasons: Noted as a swing high resistance with confluence from the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where selling pressure may intensify, potentially hindering further upward movement. The Fibonacci confluence enhances the significance of this resistance level.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3649

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could stall and reverse to drop lower.

1st support: 1.3590

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting an area where price has found strong buying interests in the past to potentially halt any further downward movement.

1st resistance: 1.3687

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6648

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap support, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 0.6593

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has found strong support recently to provide a basis to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.6714

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6074

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up.

1st support: 0.6038

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 0.6136

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, marking a barrier that has previously capped upward movements.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance. In addition, the presence of a RSI bearish divergence increases the probability of a pull back towards the pivot.

Pivot: 39,310.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 38,572.60

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong buying interests to provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 40,075.11

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance at the all-time high, indicating a potential barrier that could cap any upward movements.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 18,534.90

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 18,319.76

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 18,894.40

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance close to the all-time high, potentially functioning as a barrier that could cap any upward movements.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,276.06

Supporting reasons: Identified as pullback support, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,206.96

Supporting reasons: Acts as an overlap support, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong buying interests to provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 5,379.91

Supporting reasons: Acts as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reaction off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 71,299.24

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting an area where selling pressures have intensified in the past.

1st support: 67,274.48

Supporting reasons: Acts as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 73,435.36

Supporting reasons: Marked by a pullback resistance, indicating a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price has made a bearish reaction off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,702.62

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, suggesting an area where selling pressures have intensified in the past.

1st support: 3,457.27

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a significant area which could provide a strong foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 3,951.32

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 77.22

Supporting reasons: Identified as pullback support, suggesting an area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 75.84

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a significant area where price has previously found strong buying interest recently and could provide a solid foundation to halt further downward movements.

1st resistance: 80.89

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, marking a significant barrier that could cap further upward movements.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce-off pivot and head towards 1st resistance

Pivot: 2409.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support with confluence from the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant historical level where buying interest may emerge, potentially acting as a pivot for bullish movement.

1st support: 2372.23

Supporting reasons: Recognized as an overlap support with confluence from the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating another historical level where buying interest has emerged, potentially providing additional support for upward movement.

1st resistance: 2474.00

Supporting reasons: Noted as a significant resistance level, suggesting a potential target for bullish movement, with confluence from the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension.

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property. 

The post Tuesday 21st May 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.36%, Shanghai Composite up 0.15%, Hang Seng down 0.27% ASX down 0.44%
• Commodities : Gold at $2353.5 (0.16%), Silver at $29.97 (-0.32%), Brent Oil at $90.43 (-0.08%), WTI Oil at $86.17 (-0.08%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.55, UK 10-year yield at 4.04, Germany 10-year yield at 2.46

News & Data:

• (USD) Core CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.3% expected
• (USD) CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.3% expected
• (CAD) Overnight Rate 5.0% vs 5.0% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets reacted negatively to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data for March, raising concerns about prolonged Federal Reserve interest rate policies. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose by 3.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing economist forecasts. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI also exceeded expectations, climbing 0.4% monthly and 3.8% annually. In China, consumer inflation eased to 0.1% in March, diverging from expectations, while the producer price index aligned with forecasts, recording a 2.8% year-on-year decline.

South Korean markets saw the Kospi index recover from earlier losses, gaining 0.15%, while the Kosdaq index remained slightly below par. In South Korea’s parliamentary election, liberal opposition parties secured a significant victory, potentially impeding the legislative agenda of the incumbent conservative party. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.35%, but the broader Topix index rebounded with a 0.15% gain. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index slid by 0.44%, ending a three-day winning streak.

In the U.S., all three major indexes experienced significant declines as the 10-year Treasury yield surged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led losses, plummeting by 1.09%. The S&P 500 dropped by 0.95%, with ten of its eleven sectors closing in the red, while the Nasdaq Composite sank by 0.84%. The 10-year Treasury note yield surpassed 4.5%, and the 2-year Treasury yield surged close to 5%.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:15 PM GMT – EUR Main Refinancing Rate
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Unemployment Claims
• 12:45 PM GMT – EUR ECB Press Conference

The post Thursday 11th April 2024: Asian Markets React to U.S. Inflation Surge and Political Shifts first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US Stocks indices rounded out the week on more record highs on Friday after some weak data prints in the US increased hopes for rate cuts from the Fed. The Nasdaq jumped 1.14%, the S&P gained 0.8% and the Dow added 0.23%. US treasury yields took a dip after the numbers, the 2-year losing 11 basis points to trade down to 4.535% again and the 10-year dropping 6.6 basis points down to 4.186%. The dollar dropped slightly against most of the majors, but again is still trading in familiar ranges against the currencies but it took a beating against Gold as the precious metal rallied over 2% on the day to hit fresh yearly highs. Oil prices jumped as well in the negative dollar environment, Brent rising 2% to $83.55 and WTI jumping 2.2% to $79.97.

Gold Surges to Fresh 2024 Highs

Gold prices surged higher on Friday as data in the US pointed to weaker conditions and therefore increased chances of more imminent rate cuts from the Fed. US Treasury yields and the dollar dropped after a weak ISM print and lower then expected University of Michigan survey results making Gold more attractive to investors against the greenback and it powered over 2% higher, from a low around $2,037 to a high at $2,088, the December 2023 high, on the day. There was probably some stop-loss flow in there to add to the momentum as prices broke through trendline resistance and a notably triple top level. Traders will now be looking forward to a data packed week to see if the shiny metal can maintain this momentum or if it drops back into the range. A strong break through the recent highs, opens the way for a run up to the all-time high at $2,135 from a technical point of view.

Calm Day Before the Storm of a Trading Week

Asian markets will open on the front foot again today on the back of another stellar day on Wall Street on Friday. It looks to be a relatively calm day in terms of economic data releases ahead of what should be a busy week for the market ahead. There is nothing to excite traders in the Asian session and so most investors will be hoping for that ‘risk on’ momentum to continue through the session. Swiss traders will however be on their toes for the Swiss CPI data release early in the European session which is likely to see some volatility in the franc, expectation is for a 0.5% m/m increase. There is nothing due out in the New York session and traders are expecting more subdued trading conditions than Friday ahead of some major data updates later in the week.

The post General Market Analysis 04/03/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

The price is moving in a clear bullish trend on the H4 chart. In addition, the price is above the ichimoku cloud, a bullish market indicator. Overnight, the price responded lower off of the 145 level with a frail bearish momentum. Price is anticipated to move towards the first support level at 143.375, which contains the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci lines.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 144.952
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 143.474

DXY:

On the H4, price has broken lower from the ichimoku cloud and is moving in a descending manner hence we are bearish bias. It has broken the resistance and is moving toward the first support at 109.334 where my swing low sits. If bearish momentum continues, it will bring price to my second support at 107.669 where my second support and previous swing low sits. Alternatively price could bounce back to test the first resistance at 110.919 where my 50% retracement sits then the second resistance at 114.719 where the 61.8% projection and previous swing high sits 

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 110.919
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 109.334

EUR/USD:

On the H4, price is moving within the descending trendline but in an ascending manner, with the price above ichimoku cloud- we are slightly bullish biased. Price has bounced off the first support and is moving toward the first resistance at 1.00473 where the 78.6% projection sits. If price breaks this level, it will test the second resistance at 1.0194, where the previous swing high sits. Alternatively, the overall bearish momentum could bring price back to test the first support at 0.9907 where the previous swing low and 50% retracement sits. If it breaks this level, we have a strong bearish confirmation to bring price down to 0.9750 where the swing low and 61.8% projection sits 

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.0047
• H4 1st support at 0.9907

GBP/USD:

On the H4 time frame, prices have bounced off the support level and are moving in an ascending manner, we are slightly bullish. Price is moving toward the first resistance at 1.1443, where the 78.6% retracement and overlap resistance sits. If it breaks this level, its bullish momentum will bring price to second resistance at 1.1739 where the previous swing high sits. Alternatively, price could pull back to test the first support at 1.0915, where the 38.2% retracement sits then the second support at 1.0355 where the 138.2% extension sits 

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.1443
• H4 1st support at 1.10915

USD/CHF:

On the H4 chart, price has rejected the resistance level and is moving in a descending manner hence we are bearish bias- prices are moving toward the first support at 0.9755 where the previous swing low sits. If bearish momentum continues, it will bring price down to the second support at 0.9626 where the overlap support sits. Alternatively, price could bounce back to test the first resistance at 0.9968 where the 127.2% extension and 100% projection sits then to test the second resistance at 1.0046

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st support at 0.9755 
• H4 1st resistance at 0.9968

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, price trades strongly higher above the ichimoku cloud as it approaches the 1st resistance of 1733 which is the previous swing high from 12 September 2022 and the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level. We continue to have a bullish bias that price could trade higher to the 2nd resistance of 1764 which is in line with the 78.60% fibonacci retracement level and previous swing high from end August 2022. However, before the move higher, the price could first retrace towards the risk level of 1708 which is the 50% fibonacci retracement level. 

Areas of consideration: 

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 1733.39
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1685
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 1764

AUD/USD:

On the H4, with the price testing the 1st resistance at 0.65337, where the 23.6% fibonacci retracement sits,  and crossing ichimoku cloud, if the price can break the 1st resistance successfully, we can expect the price rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.66373, which is in line with the 50% and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the 1st support at 0.63630, where the swing low is.

Areas of consideration 

• H4, 1st resistance at 0.65337
• H4, 2nd resistance at 0.66373

NZD/USD:

On the H4, with the price crossing the ichimoku cloud and still within the bollinger bands, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise to the 1st resistance at 0.58678, which is in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st resistance is broken, we can expect the price to rise to the 2nd resistance at 0.60130, where the 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 50% fibonacci retracement are.  Alternatively, the price may drop to the 1st support at 0.56639, where the previous swing low is. If the 1st support is broken, the next support level could be at 0.55591, which is in line with the significant swing low.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.58678
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.56639

USD/CAD:

On the H4, the price broke lower from the support turned 1st resistance level of 1.36 which is in line with the 23.60% fibonacci retracement level. With the price trading below the ascending channel and the ichimoky cloud, we have a short term bearish bias. Price could fall to the 1st support of 1.34 which is in line with the 50% retracement level and the previous swing low. However, the price could retest the 1st resistance before trading lower. Alternatively, if price breaks above the 1st resistance level, the USDCAD could trade higher towards the 2nd resistance of 1.3832 which is the previous swing high. 

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 1.36
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.34
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 1.3832

OIL: 

Oil is in a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart. However, price is now above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the market is bullish at the moment. Price has broken through the first support level, which has a 100% Fibonacci extension and served as the previous swing low, at 88.788. Overnight, price has tapped onto the first resistance level, where the 38.2% Fibonacci extension line is at 93.381. Expecting price to consolidate around this area.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 93.381
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 88.366

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

The price is moving downward on the H4 chart. The first support level at 29653.29 has also been breached by the price. Price moved away from the first support level overnight, continuing its upward bullish momentum. The initial resistance level around 28422.42, which is where the 50% Fibonacci line is situated, is where price is anticipated to move.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 29653.29
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 31268.01

DAX:

On the H4, with the price bouncing from the 1st support at  11944.52, the price may test the 1st resistance at 12904.82, which is in line with the 100% fibonacci projection  and 61.8% fibonacci retracement. If the 1st resistance is broken, the price may rise to the 2nd resistance at 13577.63, where the overlap resistance is. Alternatively, the price may drop back to the  1st support at 11944.52, which is in line with the swing low.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 12904.82
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 13577.63

ETHUSD:

The overall price of ETHUSD is quite bearish on the H4. Price has now closed above the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a potential short-term trend change. Overnight, ETHUSD kept moving upward from the first support level at 1279.74, which is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension line. We anticipate a price reversal to the 100% Fibonacci and 38.2% Fibonacci lines at 1420.74, which is the first resistance line.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 1420.74 
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1279.00

BTCUSD:

On the H4, price is showing a short term ascending trendline and testing the 1st resistance at 20427.23, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. If the 1st resistance is broken, the next resistance could be at 21864.11, which is in line with the 78.6% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, the price may pull back from the 1st resistance and drop to the 1st support at 18527, which is in line with the swing lows and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Take note the 19105.38 could be the intermediate support.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame,  1st resistance at 20427.23
• H4 time frame, 2nd resistance at 21864.11

S&P 500:

On the H4, with the price trading higher from 1st support of 3642, previous swing low of June 2022 and the interim risk level of 3746.58 which is in line with the 23.60% fibonacci retracement level, we continue to have a bearish bias. With the price breaking out of the descending channel but below the ichimoku cloud, the price could continue trading higher to the 1st resistance of 3892. 

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 3892
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 3642

The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.

News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com.au, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.

The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any user’s software, hardware, data or property.

The post Wednesday 05th October 2022: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

What happened in the US session?

The DXY saw significant volatility overnight as price fell towards the 110.30 price level following the BoJ intervention over the Yen. However, the move lower recovered, with the DXY ending the trading day at the 111 price level. 

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

With no major news during the Asia session, look for the directional bias of the currencies to be driven by a potential recovery of the DXY. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

USD Flash Services PMI 

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 75bps, taking interest rates to 3.25%. This led to the DXY strengthening significantly to reach the 111.40 price level. In addition to the rate hike, Chair Powell commented that ‘ongoing increases will be appropriate’ and signaled a strong commitment to bringing down inflation despite a slowdown in the economy. These comments added to the overall hawkish sentiment for the DXY.  With the Service PMI numbers tonight, we might expect an industry contraction with data less than 50.0 expected to weaken the USD briefly.

Central Bank Notes:

• Federal Reserve hikes rates by 75bps taking interest rates to 3.25%
• Next meeting on 3 November 
• Further rate increases can be anticipated, with rate cuts expected only if Fed Reserve is confident inflation is moving back down to 2%

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish 

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from Gold today?

Gold surged strongly to the upside, testing the 1680 resistance level as the DXY weakened briefly. However, the move higher was short lived as the resistance level held strong, resulting in Gold ending the trading session at the 1670 price level. Look for Gold to trade lower towards the 1655 support level as the DXY strengthens. Gold is expected to remain between the 1655 and 1680 price range  

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events. 

What can we expect from AUD today?

The AUDUSD tested the 0.65830 support level and reversed from here. The reversal was because of the pullback of DXY.  Anticipate further downside moves on the AUDUSD, with the key support level at 0.6530, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen. However, significant volatility can be expected with the AUDUSD trading lower into the historic low price levels.

Central Bank Notes:

• Further rate hikes are expected but the size will be dependent on upcoming data releases. 
• Meeting on 4 October 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

The NZDUSD currently trades at the 0.5830 price level, the price is dropping back to the level before reversing. With yesterday’s negative trade balance data (-2447M), we could expect the price to drop to the key support level at 0.5810, and the downtrend is still firmly in place, more downside can be anticipated. The next key support level is 0.5600, which was last reached in 2020. 

Central Bank Notes:

• Cash rate stands at 3.00% 
• Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
• Next meeting on 5 October 2022

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish 

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No Major News Events

What can we expect from JPY today?

Today is a bank holiday for the Bank of Japan. Japanese banks will be closed in observance of Autumnal Equinox Day. Not expecting much movement for the Japanese Yen today in the markets. Yesterday Japan intervened in the forex markets, causing the Yen to slump 540 pips from 145.90 all the way down to 140.30. Look for a brief recovery of the USDJPY, retracing towards the 143 resistance level following the huge intervention movement yesterday.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish 

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 23 September 2022 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.